There appear to have been some spectacular movements in house prices last year, according to the notaires, if the figures are to be believed.

The Notaires de France have recently published their figures for the movement in house prices in 2017 for each department of France.

On a national basis they report that house prices outside of the Ile-de-France rose by an average of 2.4%. In the Ile-de-France they rose by an average of 3.3%.

That is broadly within a range reported earlier in the year from the major estate agent chains, with figures of 3.2% from Laforet, to 1.20% from Century 21. The national association of estate agents (FNAIM) reported the largest upward movement of 4.20%.

As usual, however, scratch beneath the surface and all is not as it seems, for the estate agents provided scant information at a local level, an omission corrected by the notaires whose departmental figures show a hugely contrasting picture.

Thus, in around one-third of departments prices fell in the year.

Moreover, widen the scan to a 5-year period and prices are lower at the end of 2017 than they were in 2012 in no less than around half of all departments.

Neither is this a trend that occurred merely north of the Loire; prices are also lower in several popular departments of the south. In Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur prices have fallen over the 5-year period in five out of the six departments in the region. Similarly, in Occitanie (formerly Languedoc-Roussillon and Midi-Pyrénées) prices have fallen in nine of the thirteen departments.

The figures are before the impact of inflation has been factored in, so they are less than the 'real' fall in prices.

The table below spells it out, showing the percentage movement in prices in 2017 between Q4/2016 and Q4/2017. It also shows the percentage price change for the period 2012-17, and the average house price at the end of 2017.

The figures come with the usual health warning that they are based, for the most part, on transactions that have taken place in the main urban areas in each department and do not necessarily reflect what is happening to rural properties, a difficult market to assess due to the diversity of the housing stock and the lower number of sales.

In addition, at this level the figures take no account of any structural changes that may have taken place in the nature of the sales, notably the surface area of properties sold. Thus, if buyers purchased larger, more expensive homes it would increase the average selling price, whilst if there was an increase in the number of sales of smaller properties it would reduce the average sales price. That is why we have included the 5-year trend, in the hope that any such changes will have smoothed themselves out over a longer period.

Only within the Ile-de-France have the notaires adjusted their figures to take account of such structural changes.

Accordingly, some of the double digit movements in house prices that are being reported for last year need to be treated with particular caution.

The cheapest properties in France can be found in Nièvre (Burgundy) where house prices average €70,600, whilst the most expensive department outside of the Ile-de-France remains the Alpes-Maritimes (PACA) at €414,600, a price difference of nearly 600%!

In recent months there are indications that some of the heat is coming out of the market (lower mortgage demands, lower sales, prices stable/slipping) and that sales and price increases in 2018 are likely to below those for 2017.

Source: Notaires de France