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Notaires House Price Revisions for Qtr3/2016

Friday 03 March 2017

The notaires have issued significant, mostly downward, revisions to their analysis of house price movements for the third quarter of 2016.

Last month, the notaires published figures for the variation in house prices for each department of France for the third quarter of 2016.

At the time we expressed some surprise at the substantial and widespread upward movement in prices that was being reported.

It seems our scepticism was well-founded for no sooner was the ink dry on the figures than a further release this month has completely recast the price map.

With a minor exception, the new figures are a far more sober analysis of the market, with few departments showing any questionably large changes in prices.

Barely any department has escaped a clawback, and in many cases the change has been very substantial, from an initially reported increase in prices, to one that now shows that prices actually fell in the third quarter. In addition, many departments that did not previously have price data do now have a figure for the period.

Despite the recent headlines in France about a renewed level of combustion in the housing market, in reality most of the upward change is taking place in Paris and a few other major cities, and it is far from clear that any significant increase is taking place in the countryside. In a large number of cases, prices remain stagnant or are falling.

As a result of these changes, INSEE, the French national statistical office have revised the national average variation in house prices for the third quarter 2016 down from +1.5% to +1.2%, a figure that still only remains 'semi-definitive'.

They also report that the final figure for the second quarter of last year is an average fall of 0.6%, from a fall of 0.4% previously reported.

Provisional figures that have been published recently for the final, fourth quarter show house prices in the regions outside of Paris rose by only 0.5%. The final departmental figures for 2016 will be available in May.

The table below shows the average percentage price change in each department for each of the first three quarters of 2016, as well as the movement in prices for the year ending 31st December 2015.

House Prices 2016
Region/Dept
% Change 2015
% Change Q1
% Change Q2
% Change Q3
AUVERGNE-RHONE-ALPES
Ain +0.2%+3.5% +0.5% +2.1%
Allier -2.9%-6.7%+3.4% n/a
Ardèche +0.3%-9.5%+6.3% +3.1%
Cantal -0.5%n/a +7.0% +5.7%
Drôme +0.2%-3.0%-0.8% +3.1%
Isère +1.5%+1.4%0.0% +2.4%
Haute-Loire -0.5%+1.5%-1.8% 0.0%
Loire +0.6%0.0%+3.3% -6.3%
Puy-de-Dôme+1.9%+1.5%+5.0% +4.8%
Rhône +1.1%-2.8%+8.9% -3.4%
Haute-Savoie +0.3%-1.4%-0.1% -0.1%
Savoie+0.6%+0.9%+9.6% -2.1%
BRITTANY
Côte d'Amour+1.9%-3.0%+3.1% +1.4%
Finistère+1.7-3.6%+3.0% +1.4%
IIe-et-Vilaine +2.4%
-1.2%0.0% +0.6%
Morbihan
-0.8%-1.8%-1.8% +3.1%
BOURGOGNE FRANCHE-COMTE
Belfort
-2.1%-7.3%-3.7% +6.3%
Côte-d'Or+0.1%+4.1%-5.5% +3.8%
Doubs
-1.4%-5.9%+2.9% -9.4%
Haute-Saône-3.3%-9.1%n/an/a
Jura
-2.4%+8.3%+3.8% -2.3%
Nièvre-0.4%-6.7%0.0% +9.7%
Saône-et-Loire+0.8%-2.9%-0.6% +4.4%
Yonne
-2.1%0.0%-3.5% +7.1%
CENTRE-VAL DE LOIRE
Cher
-2.0%-1.0%-0.2% +3.7%
Eure-et-Loir
-2.8%-4.9%+5.8% -3.5%
Indre
+6.7%n/a +4.7 -1.7%
Indre-et-Loire
+0.7%-1.0%+5.7% 0.0%
Loir-et-Cher
-0.8%+4.5%-2.4% +1.2%
Loiret
-1.2%0.0%+2.2% -2.1%
GRAND EST
Ardennes
+1.4%-4.2%+2.3% 0.0%
Aube
-5.0%+5.7%-3.8% +6.0%
Haute-Marne
-2.9%n/an/an/a
Marne
-2.9%+9.7%-8.2% +4.2%
Meurthe-et-Moselle
-1.0%-8.0%+6.1% -3.2%
Meuse
-3.3%+2.0%n/a
n/a
Moselle
+0.8%-1.7%+1.8%
+3.8%
Bas-Rhin
+2.2%+2.8%+2.0% +3.2%
Haut-Rhin
+1.8%+6.8%-5.4% -3.6%
Vosges
-3.4%-9.1%n/a0.0%
HAUTS DE FRANCE
Aisne -1.4%-6.4%-2.9% +8.2%
Nord +1.0%-3.4%+1.3% +0.7%
Oise +1.6%-6.4%-1.7% -1.1%
Pas-de-Calais+1.6%-3.7%0.0% +0.4%
Somme -3.9%-7.6%+5.3% -1.7%
ILE-DE-FRANCE*
Paris-0.4%+0,2%+1.2% +2.1%
Seine-Saint-Denis-1.6%-0.5%+0.8% +2.7%
Haute-de-Seine-2.5%+0.3%+1.3% +2.5%
Val-et-Marne -1.3%-0.2%+1.2% +2.6%
Val d'Oise -1.4%-0.4%+0.3% +2.9%
Yvelines-3.8%0.0%+0.8% +2.8%
Essonne -1.1%-1.0%+0.1% +3.2%
Seine-et-Marne-1.4%-1.5%
+0.1% +3.1%
NOUVELLE-AQUITAINE
Charente -0.3%-4.3%+9.0% -3.9%
Charente-Maritime -0.0%-4.0%+0.3% +0.6%
Corrèze -1.9%+5.1%-9.5% n/a
Creuse -0.8%n/a
+4.3% +4.2%
Deux-Sèvres -1.1%0.0%+6.4% -2.7%
Dordogne +1.2% n/a
-8.0% -1.3%
Gironde +2.9% -2.3%+8.1% -0.7%
Landes -2.5% +4.3%-3.8% +2.2%
Lot-et-Garonne +1.6%-0.8%-8.0% +3.1%
Pyrénées-Atlantiques-1.7%+4.9%-1.4% -2.1%
Haute-Vienne -1.9%-3.8%+4.3% 0.0%
Vienne
-2.7%-4.6%+2.8% +3.8%
OCCITANIE
Ariège +4.1%+7.5%n/a
n/a
Aude +1.4%+5.5%n/an/a
Aveyron +1.6%n/a
+5.1% +8.4%
Gard -0.4%-1.0%+2.1% +1.5%
Gers +1.5%-2.1%n/a n/a
Haute-Garonne +0.8%+1.8%-3.7% -0.9%
Hautes-Pyrénées +3.1%-8.8%+0.8
+4.6%
Hérault +1.3%-3.1%+2.4% +3.4%
Lot+1.5%-7.5%n/a+4.9%
Lozère -0.7%n/a
-10.0% +1.1%
Pyrénées-Orientales+0.9%-4.9%+6.3% +1.2%
Tarn +1.9%n/a+2.7% +2.7%
Tarn-et-Garonne +1.3%0.0%-6.0% -3.6%
NORMANDY
Calvados
+0.6%+3.2%-1.0% +3.8%
Manche
+0.2%-0.2%-1.4% +2.4%
Orne
-1.4%-8.2%+8.1% +4.9%
Eure
+0.3%-1.4%+2.8% 0.0%
Seine-Maritime
+0.4%0.0%-0.7% +2.1%
PAYS DE LA LOIRE
Loire-Atlantique
+2.3%+1.0%+1.0% -2.4%
Maine-et-Loire
+2.6%-10%0.0% +2.8%
Mayenne
+2.9%+4.8%0.0% +7.8%
Sarthe
+1.3%-2.1%-1.7% -3.4%
Vendée-0.1%+0.1%0.0% 0.0%
PROVENCE-ALPES-COTE D'AZUR
Alpes-de-Haute-Provence
+0.3%n/a+9.4% n/a
Alpes-Maritimes+1.7%+0.5%+0.1% -3.4%
Bouches-du-Rhône
-1.4%0.0%+0.2% -2.0%
Hautes-Alpes
+0.3%n/a+3.9% +1.3%
Var+1.1%+1.6%+0.5% -0.7%
Vaucluse
-0.2%-3.9%-0.7% -5.9%
*Apartments for Ile-de-France

Source: Notaires de France

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